The Materials and Energy research team examines how Canada’s clean energy transition is reshaping demand for critical minerals, and how recycling can strengthen Canada’s supply of these materials. Our work helps policymakers understand these emerging material dynamics and their implications for Canada’s economic competitiveness, industrial development, and environmental and social goals.
As technologies like electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels continue to scale up, the price and availability of the materials needed to produce, maintain and replace them will increasingly determine their rate of adoption. Expanding supply quickly enough to meet demand raises important questions not only about emissions reduction, but also environmental protection, community impacts and social justice.
Recycling can support a circular economy for clean energy technologies and help limit the environmental and social impacts of mining and waste. Critical minerals recovered from retired panels, turbines and batteries can help boost domestic supply, reducing the need for primary mineral extraction in Canada and abroad. With more clean energy technologies reaching the end of their useful lives, Canada is facing growing waste management challenges, but also new opportunities to recover critical minerals.
Strategic decision-making on domestic resource development and the pursuit of new trade agreements requires a deeper understanding of which critical minerals will be needed most, and when. Industrial policy approaches that promote synergies and reduce supply chain disruptions are also needed. By bringing these aspects together, our work informs responsible critical mineral development, strengthens supply chain resilience and aligns resource policy with broader decarbonization goals.
How we work
Using modelling techniques that track material flows, the Materials and Energy research team analyzes future material demand across clean energy technologies. By identifying potential trajectories for technology uptake, our modelling allows us to explore major sources of uncertainty in Canada’s transition, including where clean energy technologies are adopted, how long they last and which technology sub-types become most common.
These differences matter for identifying opportunities to improve recycling, reuse and material circularity. This is because each technology type relies on a unique mix of materials, which in turn shape supply needs, recycling systems and related infrastructure. We also assess the volume, composition and timing of waste generated as clean energy technologies retire. Understanding the makeup and trajectory of demand for individual critical minerals as well as the implications for recycling, provides key information on priority minerals for resource development.
To study decarbonization and circular economy policies together, rather than in isolation, our modelling work takes a few different approaches. In addition to evaluating material demand and waste in Canada using material flow models, we are working to merge these material analyses with energy use and emissions assessment tools.
Through this combined modelling, we can explore emissions reduction and material criticality trade-offs. This shows not only how emissions reduction policies shape material outcomes, but also how material-focused policies can affect energy use and emissions. This work will provide a more holistic picture of how different policy choices interact across the clean energy transition.
Meet the team
The Materials and Energy team is led by Dr. Geoffrey McCarney, Executive Director of SPI, who specializes in policy-oriented research and knowledge mobilization in environmental, natural resource and development economics. Our team includes Aaron Pardy, a Senior Research Associate and postdoctoral fellow who specializes in materials and energy policy analysis and quantitative assessment tools; Shahid Hossaini, a Senior Research Associate and PhD Candidate at the University of Toronto who specializes in energy systems and material lifecycle model development; and Mykensie Kendrick, a Research Associate specializing in policy and data analysis, particularly around materials and energy, the environment and green skills.
Our work combines academic and modelling expertise, policy analysis, and applied research on critical minerals, clean energy technologies and circular economy solutions to help governments, industry and other partners understand the material dimensions of Canada’s clean energy transition. We encourage researchers, practitioners and stakeholders in this space to reach out to us about our work at info@smartprosperity.ca.
Read our publications
Read our working paper: Value recovery and end-of-life considerations in Renewable Energy Technology Selection: Modelling Critical Material Demand and Waste Implications
Read our foundational work from 2021 on the material considerations for solar and wind energy: Solar and Wind Energy in Canada: Value Recovery and End-of-Life Considerations
Watch the recording or read the summary of our session at the World Circular Economy Forum 2021: Circularity Across the Mining and Metals Value Chain
Read a summary of our report: Primary Materials in the Emerging Circular Economy
Read our blog post: Circular economy global sector best practices: Minerals and metals
Our work in the news
CBC Radio’s Trailbreaker host, Shannon Scott, talks with Dr. Geoffrey McCarney about how critical minerals contribute to Canada’s nation-building and defence projects: How critical minerals contribute to nation-building and defence projects
Read Dr. Geoffrey McCarney’s insights in this Radio Canada International article on recycling solar panels: These busted solar panels are an early example of a looming problem – and an opportunity
This work is undertaken with the financial support of the Max Bell Foundation, Natural Resources Canada and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
