By Shahid Hossaini, Aaron Pardy, Geoffrey R. McCarney, and Colleen Kaiser
It is generally assumed that Electric vehicles (EVs) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the light-duty vehicle sector globally. Government policies are helping to drive this transition. At the same time, there is growing awareness of the critical mineral and broader material demand implications of scaling EV and other low-carbon technology adoption as global decarbonization efforts ramp up in the coming years. In this study, we aim to address how different assumptions around the future chemistry, size, and lifespan of competing EV battery technologies influence the magnitude, composition, and timing of EV battery material demand and waste if Canada is to meet its target of no new internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035 (as per Canada’s new EV Availability Standard). To do so, we develop a novel material flow model to assess EV battery material requirements for the fleet of light-duty EVs in Canada under the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard and explore different future EV battery technology adoption pathways and different consumer choices over types of EVs and vehicle size classes. We then discuss policy linkages that stem from this modelling analysis and provide preliminary insights to inform policymaking related to the broader critical mineral demands and environmental impacts of decarbonizing the light duty vehicle segment in Canada.
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