By Shahid Hossaini and Geoffrey R. McCarney
Building from recent work projecting future end-of-life solar PV and wind turbine waste in Canada, this study investigates alternative pathways for renewable energy sub-technology adoption in Canada and the associated changes in material and mineral demand for a renewable energy (low carbon) transition. In doing so, it estimates the amount of critical and strategic minerals (CSMs), including rare earth elements (REEs) present in projected solar and wind installation for Canada, and the future material waste streams that these embody, to evaluate potential material quantities that can be recovered based on current and future end-of-life recycling rates.
Our analysis shows that current low end-of-life recycling rates (EoL-RR) for CSMs and REEs in solar PV modules and wind turbines, respectively cause a decrease in the recyclability index in the scenarios that see more significant thin-film solar PV and direct-drive wind turbine adoption. We find that while current research in the recycling of CSMs and REEs from end-of-life technologies shows high levels of recovery, these technologies are relatively new and require investments into R&D and policy support for broader adoption. We also find that Canada’s unique geography makes the collection and transport of end-of-life solar PV modules and wind turbines challenging and there is a need for strategic investments to establish cost-effective and sustainable collection channels. Finally, we show that secondary material supply can only meet a fraction of future CSM and REE demand even under optimistic assumptions on EoL-RRs suggesting that continued primary material extraction will be required in the near to medium term to meet rising metal and mineral demand of a low carbon energy transition.
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