January 25, 2022

Guest post by Nathan Lemphers

Globally, transportation systems are under stress. Increasing amounts of goods and people are moving further distances on aging, underfunded infrastructure. Meanwhile, more sustainable transportation modes often struggle to compete with established, more polluting means of transport. Despite this struggle, new electrified forms of transport are taking hold in certain cities. In leading cities like Oslo, thanks to a highly-supportive policy environment, electric vehicles are outpacing sales of conventional fossil-fuelled cars and disrupting business-as-usual for the local transportation system. More than 20 countries have legislated or proposed legislation for a ban on light-duty internal combustion engine vehicles or a 100 percent electric vehicle (EV) sales target. Globally, most major automakers are taking note of the growing bans on internal combustion engine vehicles and the growth opportunities for electric vehicles and have plans to produce over 400 battery electric vehicle models by 2025.

As increased production, global competition, and public policy drives down electric vehicle purchase costs and as charging networks are built out, these new vehicles may catalyze a transformation of passenger transportation, especially if combined with electrifying other forms of mass and micromobility, such as buses and bicycles. The disruptive potential further increases with the anticipated rise in connected and autonomous vehicles and new mobility-as-a-service business models. Existing studies reveal the challenge for local policymakers to manage the potential impacts of these technologies. As cities have discovered with transportation network companies (e.g., Uber, Lyft) and online short-term rental platforms (e.g., AirBnB), new technologies can carry negative social, environmental, and economic consequences, if policymakers are caught unprepared. For instance, ride-sharing companies have caused mode-shifting away from public transit and increased traffic congestion in some cities.

In my latest SPI working paper, I ask the following question: How can cities best prepare for EVs? This is linked to four other inter-related questions: What is the current alignment within a city’s passenger mobility system? To what extent is electrified transport currently integrated into a city’s passenger mobility system? Looking forward to 2040, if these trends continue, how may additional electric vehicles alter this system? And lastly, how can cities manage the potential risks associated with a shift to electromobility?

I ground these questions in the context of three Canadian cities: Calgary, Alberta; Toronto, Ontario; and Montréal, Québec. Evidence for identifying the present and future state of electromobility in these three cities is drawn from 23 interviews with transportation service providers, transportation user groups, and observers of municipal electrification efforts, along with a range of secondary sources, largely government statistics and transportation plans.

This data is structured using a new and innovative sectoral regime analysis framework, based on the latest insights from the socio-technical transitions literature. Rather than treating EVs as an isolated technology that simply requires sufficient charging infrastructure, this analysis also considers how EVs impact the management of mobility services, the design of user interfaces, the requirements and expectations of users, planning practices and public financing, and societal meaning. Further, this analysis examines how electrification may impact the many ways people move around cities (e.g., private vehicles, public transit, taxis, car/ride sharing, bikes and scooters, and walking).

By placing EVs within the context of broader urban passenger transportation systems and assessing both the current reality and a potential future in 2040, I provide an analysis grounded in the unique challenges and opportunities faced by three Canadian cities. In doing so, this research improves our understanding of how the various alignments within and among prevailing transportation modes create different place-based challenges and opportunities at the sectoral level for an electromobility transition. Crucially, it deepens our understanding of the broader risks and uncertainties associated with a transition to EVs and aids policymakers as they govern through these ambiguities.

For a detailed analysis of Dr. Lemphers’ research on the policy preparedness for electric vehicles, see his recently published Smart Prosperity Institute Working Paper. For more of Dr. Lemphers’ recent work, see his blog on EV leadership in California, Norway, and Québec and on how the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility in Toronto and Vancouver.