A picture of a row of red brick homes

In August 2022, the Smart Prosperity Institute published the paper, Ontario’s Need for 1.5 Million More Homes, a geographic breakdown of where 1.5 million homes needed to be built between 2021 and 2031 to keep up with population growth. Since the publication of the report, Ontario has experienced rapid and unexpected levels of population growth. This growth created a need for us to update our estimates.

Using population projections from the Ontario Ministry of Finance, we now find that Ontario will need to build 1.7 million homes between 2021 and 2031 to accommodate population growth and the pre-existing housing shortage, an increase of approximately 190,000 units relative to the previous estimate.

Of the 1.7 million homes needed over the next decade, 45% of the demand will come from just three of 49 census divisions: Peel Region, York Region, and the City of Toronto. Every census division saw their housing demand estimates increase, with Peel, Toronto, Waterloo, Middlesex, and Durham all experiencing increases of more than 10,000 units.

The report contains tables with the revised estimates for each of Ontario’s 49 census divisions, which should aid policymakers in their planning. With this increase, we conclude that the province’s current target of 1.5 million homes is insufficient to meet projected population growth and should be increased.

Read the report